Weapons school graduate patch

The Weapons School patch adorns the uniforms of the current chief of staff of the Air Force and the commander of Air Combat Command , among others. Looking deeper, what do the data show regarding the return on investment? A graduate may become humble, approachable, and credible, but will he or she become more promotable?

In an effort to answer these questions, we turned to anonymized Air Force personnel records dating back to , amounting to nearly 4 million observations. While we are not permitted to release the data, we can share the results. Armed with data, we are able to discern what any active duty officer was doing in any given year, including their particular duty, their rater information, and whether that individual had graduated from Weapons School.

This information allowed us to compare the effect of graduating from Weapons School on promoting below the zone to lieutenant colonel and colonel. The data also capture whether the officer assumed command of a detachment, support squadron, or operational squadron.

As such, we are also able to tell how graduation impacts the opportunity to command, and then how this command experience impacts promoting early to colonel. With one notable exception, Weapons School graduates seldom advance through the ranks quicker than their peers. That exception is fighter pilots: Graduating from Weapons School appears to increase the odds of promoting below the zone in the fighter pilot community and only in one specific level of promotion.

They are about ten percent more likely to promote below the zone to lieutenant colonel compared to their non-graduate counterparts. Fighter pilots, of course, occupy many positions of senior leadership in the modern Air Force, and it is worth noting that fighter pilots comprise a significant proportion of the Weapons School graduate population.

In , roughly 20 percent of all weapons officers that received a promotion were fighter pilots. And though the Weapons School continues to add new squadrons, fighter pilots still comprised roughly 15 percent of all weapons officers that promoted in However, the other 29 career fields eligible to attend Weapons School do not appear to promote any faster than non-graduates, with the possible exceptions of air battle managers and intelligence officers.

For these two career fields, results indicate that they might promote faster than non-graduates, but the results are so weak that it is impossible to say with confidence that there exists any correlation. The results weaken for promoting below the zone to colonel — even for fighter pilots — with there being no discernible difference between those who did and those who did not graduate from Weapons School, including within the fighter pilot community.

There is even evidence that bomber pilots who graduate from Weapons School actually promote slower than their non-graduate counterparts. Fewer people promote to colonel than to lieutenant colonel, of course, which makes the sample size smaller and statistical findings more elusive. It might also be the case that, at this point, different career characteristics outweigh the benefits of Weapons School graduation when it comes to promotion decisions.

For example, the experience of successfully commanding a squadron might be more important than graduating Weapons School. As such, it might be that graduates promote to colonel faster because their odds of command are greater than non-graduates. In other words, Weapons School might indirectly improve the odds of promotion by making graduates more competitive for command opportunities.

The data generally support this idea. While graduating from Weapons School appears to have a generally positive effect on the likelihood of receiving command, there are some clear standouts and exceptions. When it comes to improving the odds of command, the community that gains the most from Weapons School graduation is the reconnaissance remotely piloted aircraft community.

Members of this community who graduate from Weapons School are at least 50 percent more likely to receive command than those who do not on average. So, while fighter pilots stand to gain the most in terms of promoting early to lieutenant colonel, they do not gain the most in terms of later command opportunities.

Unfortunately, we do not have data on what unit each officer commanded, so we cannot definitely examine why this difference exists. Surprisingly, there is at least one career field whose members appear to have a more difficult time receiving the opportunity to command after they graduate from Weapons School than when they do not: the network operations career field. It is unclear what explains this correlation, but it could be due to the fact that it is a relatively new career field or that the sample size is too small to meaningfully estimate the impact of graduating from Weapons School.

Finally, we estimated a series of regressions to determine for which communities graduating command is correlated with promoting below the zone to colonel. Interestingly, across communities eligible to attend Weapons School, a graduated commander is not necessarily more likely to promote early to colonel. In only a few instances is there strong evidence of a positive correlation between command and early promotion.

These are the fighter pilot, mobility pilot, special operations pilot, air battle manager, and space communities. In no other community there are 30 total is there compelling evidence that command improves the odds of promoting below the zone.

What does this all mean? Does Weapons School provide a graduate a return on investment through a higher probability of promotion and command opportunities? The short answer is yes, but the data clearly suggest that Weapons School graduation does not impact all eligible career fields equally, and certain career fields appear to benefit more.

Perhaps unsurprisingly, the fighter pilot community stands to benefit the most, at least when it comes to promoting early to lieutenant colonel. Third, graduates tend to be more competitive for command opportunities than their non-graduate counterparts.

In fact, graduates across a wide range of career fields tend to benefit in terms of their odds of receiving command. This boost may be entirely justified as graduates are known for being tactical experts even outside of their core career field, potentially making them better suited for command positions. This patch comes WITH velcro on the back. This patch comes with velcro on the back.

This patch does NOT come with velcro already attached. This patch DOES come with velcro already attached. It is different from a regular graduate by the thick black border. This patch does NOT come with velcro attached. This patch DOES come with velcro attached. This patch does not come with velcro attached. This patch does come with velcro attached.